The point: no new order, the long on oil is rejected. Tonight at 19:00 Italian time the Fed, the first test of the gold short in play. Yesterday the CAC 40 of 23 Oct hit its stop.
Compared with the week's lesson. Confirmed: the risk premium on oil and the idea that the surprise moves prices, not the event already priced in. Tech changes: on Sunday the theme was the AI slide, yesterday the market went back to chips. Tonight the double evening seen on Sunday: Fed, then Microsoft and Alphabet.
The news that matters.
- Strong US data, dollar up. Consumer confidence (Conference Board) 91.7 against 81 expected, one-year expected inflation 5.8%: for the Fed one more reason for the December hike, priced at 82% (CME FedWatch via FXStreet, 27 Oct). US ten-year 5.03%, dollar (DXY) up for three sessions, euro/dollar 1.1116, near the low since April 2025; gold 4,030.55 (−0.73%, TE). Touches the gold short.
- Iran and oil. According to the WSJ (via investingLive) the US is preparing the Gulf countries for a possible «brief and intense» campaign against Iran after the 3 Nov vote; Trump has not decided, and said he will not attack before 3 Nov. The Houthis claim an attack on the largest Saudi refinery: not confirmed. WTI 101.63 (+1.73%, TE): Monday's diplomacy had trimmed the premium, the WSJ raises it again. Touches today's rejected thesis, the gold short and the watched DAX.
- Central banks. New Zealand on hold at 2.75% (4 votes to 3) against an expected hike: New Zealand dollar −1.1%, it is the surprise that moves. Japan: services prices for businesses +3.7%, highest since June 2024 (TE), an argument for Friday's BoJ: touches the weekly dollar/yen.
- Tech. Yesterday S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq Composite +1.18% (TE), led by chips: 63 billion in loans to Broadcom tied to Anthropic, new Meta shares for 25 billion with demand 5 times the offer. This morning Nikkei +1.08%. Touches Nasdaq and Nikkei.
- Europe. ECB survey: in the third quarter tighter credit and falling loan demand, in the direction of the watched DAX, which however did +0.7% yesterday. France: consumer confidence 80, from 85, lowest since 2013 (investingLive), and CAC +0.7% anyway, on the day the CAC short hit its stop. London about −0.7% (HSBC −5.4%), today the budget.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. Around 13:30 UK budget (time not verified): FTSE 100, pound. 15:30 EIA inventories (expected +0.8 million; the API showed −2.0). 19:00 Fed, expected on hold at 3.75-4.00%, Warsh at 19:30; 21:05 Microsoft and Alphabet. Tomorrow 13:30 US GDP and PCE (core expected +0.3% on the month, +3.1% on the year), 14:15 ECB, expected on hold at 2.50%. Friday around 04:00 the BoJ.
The moves in play.
- Gold · short · PROPOSAL of 27 Oct, from 4,000 in the record: high 4,070.80 overnight, stop 4,100 never touched; at 08:29 4,036.93, $37 against; time exit on 09 Nov.
- DAX · short · WATCHED of 26 Oct, from 25,440: high 25,656.6 yesterday; stop 25,780 and target 25,180 never touched after the fill; at 08:29 25,534.7, 95 points against; exits on 30 Oct.
- Closed yesterday: CAC 40 · short · PROPOSAL of 23 Oct, stop in the afternoon, −1.03 R net; Nikkei · short · REJECTED of 26 Oct, stop on paper, −1.00 R. The «no» is judged afterwards too.
From the weekly: gold · long · from 4,105, $68 against, exit in the record on 02 Nov; dollar/yen · long · from 157.680, 22 pips in favour, exit in the record on 18 Nov.
Today's move. WTI oil · long · REJECTED: the thesis was the war premium rising again; limit 100.7, just above 100.6 (2 days). But after a month of strong rise, like today's +10.8% in 20 sessions, oil in the next 5 sessions went back down more often than it rose (shift −0.009 R, ratio −0.22): the story says UP, the numbers don't.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
No PROPOSAL today.
- WTI oil · long · REJECTED 2026-10-28-01: measured thesis, not an order. Limit 100.7, stop 94.8, target 103.3; confidence NONE, 0 out of 6. Limit not touched after the 08:16 recording.