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Diary

The diary · Tuesday 27 Oct 2026

6 min read

Translated from the Italian original and checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

The point: one new PROPOSAL: gold short at market, around 4,000, on tomorrow's Fed. Small measured edge, and against the weekly long on gold. The CAC 40 exits this evening.

Compared with the lesson of the week. The picture holds. The Fed stays at the centre: on Sunday the December hike was priced at 75-80%, today at 82% (CME FedWatch quoted by FXStreet; other readings between 73% and 83%). Oil confirms Sunday's mechanism: on Monday diplomacy trimmed the risk premium. Tech rebounds, but the doubt about AI costs remains. One number changes: today's US durable goods, expected +0.6% on Sunday, now +1.5% (TE).

The news that matters.

  • Gold, silver and the Fed. This morning gold at 4,000.72 (−0.40%, TE), silver −2.15% at 52.80, near one-year lows; the dollar (DXY index) from 101.96 to 102.17, US ten-year 4.98% (CNBC; on Sunday we wrote 5.00%). For TE the weights are the strong dollar ahead of the central banks and expensive oil. Opinions: Bhave (Bank of America) expects a surprise hike already this week; for Bloomberg one or more members could vote against the pause. It is today's PROPOSAL and it touches the weekly on gold.
  • Oil and Iran. On Monday in Tehran, envoys from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey: a joint commitment to dialogue «for the peace and security of the region» (Al Jazeera). For CNBC this is the reason for the drop: Brent 115.81 (−0.91 $), WTI 101.76 (−1.51 $). This morning Saudi Arabia intercepted 3 missiles and 4 Houthi drones; for Trump, on Sunday, the moment to decide between a deal and force is near. On Hormuz the sources disagree. It touches the gold thesis (a deal is among its risks) and the DAX one.
  • France. Ten-year back below 5% (4.91% on Monday, TE); spread over the Bund about 155 basis points (briefing calculation), on 23 Oct above 160. The budget for 2027: no new news. Two premises of the CAC 40 thesis have loosened; it exits this evening.
  • Germany. Ifo 90.2, above the expected 89.8 written on Sunday: weaker view of the present (88.8), better expectations (91.6). In the briefing's reading, the Ifo and falling oil take strength away from the decline: it touches the watched DAX.
  • Yen. From the Finance Ministry, Katayama says the government is «ready to take decisive action on the currency market» (investingLive): it is the classic warning that comes before an intervention to support the yen. Dollar/yen from 157.50 to 157.82 (CNBC). It touches the weekly on dollar/yen.
  • Tech. For TE and CNBC, Anthropic's listing prospectus revived AI demand: Nasdaq 100 +1.09%, this morning Nikkei +1.73% (CNBC). But Meta −1.9% on a capital increase of up to 95 billion, and chips remain in a bear market (SOXX −25%). At 08:00 Italian time, Nasdaq 100 futures −0.42% (CNBC).

Today and tomorrow on the calendar. Today none of the five big US releases. 13:30 US durable goods (expected +1.5%, ex-transport +0.6%); 15:00 Conference Board confidence (expected 80.5, previous 81.9); 21:30 API inventories, for oil. Tomorrow at 19:00 the Fed, expected on hold at 3.75-4.00%, press conference at 19:30; at 21:05, after the market close, Microsoft and Alphabet. Then, as on Sunday: PCE and ECB on Thursday, BoJ on Friday.

The moves in play.

  • CAC 40 · short · PROPOSAL of 23 Oct: executed on 26 Oct at the open, the record counts from 7,820. Stop 7,905 never touched (high 7,873.1); at 08:36 7,813.7, 6 points in favour. It exits at today's close, before the Fed.
  • DAX · short · WATCHED of 26 Oct: limit 25,440 touched yesterday after registration; stop 25,780 never touched (high 25,511); at 08:36 25,341.3, 99 points in favour. Yesterday's low, 25,132, below the target 25,180, came before 08:17: target not touched. It exits on 30 Oct.

From the weekly:

  • Gold · long · from 4,105: 101 $ against; exit in the record on 2 Nov.
  • Dollar/yen · long · from 157.680: 7 pips in favour; exit in the record on 18 Nov.

Today's move.

  • Gold · short · PROPOSAL: at market around 4,000; thesis, the Fed decides inside a hiking cycle with expensive oil, and higher expected rates weigh on gold. It goes against the weekly on gold: two different measures, judged separately in the record.

The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded before and judged after in the public record: they are not financial advice.

Order 1 · gold · short · PROPOSAL 2026-10-27-01

  • Entry: at market, around 4,000, recorded at 08:22. Why: a rebound up to the ceiling 4,091.35 before the Fed would come only from news against the thesis.
  • Stop: 4,100 (100 $, 1.42 ATR). Why: beyond 4,091.35, where price stopped on 5 distinct days, the last on 14 Oct.
  • Target: 3,890 (110 $, 1.56 ATR). Why: above 3,886.25, the low of 28 Oct 2025; first 3,975.61 (low of the 20 sessions) and 3,950.68 (3 days) have to break.
  • Numbers: shift +0.173 R, ratio 1.29 (above the noise, barely), about 20 independent cases, three years out of six against; gross R almost zero, net R +0.041 largely from the swap; confidence MEDIUM, 4 out of 6.
  • Validity and time exit: at market; time exit on 9 Nov 2026.
  • The reason: Fed inside a hiking cycle, expensive oil, dollar up: gold, which pays no interest, loses demand. Filters declared beforehand: oil up in 20 sessions at least as much as today; a Fed within the horizon after a hike, as on 16 Sep. At 10 sessions only the Fed filter decides (known flaw).
  • Invalidation: a close above 4,100.
  • Risk: a patient Fed tomorrow or a deal with Iran that brings oil down; gold has already lost 4.0% in 20 sessions. In the window: Fed, PCE, ECB, BoJ, ISM, BoE and payrolls on 6 Nov. It goes against the weekly long on gold.
  • In plain words: the method is short gold for 10 sessions because, in Fed weeks after a hike, the short side has done a little better than usual; in absolute terms, almost break-even. A close above 4,100 invalidates it.

Summary: gold · short · at market around 4,000 · stop 4,100 · target 3,890 · time exit on 9 Nov 2026.

Today no WATCHED and no REJECTED.

This text is education: it is not financial advice or personalised advice, and it is not an invitation to buy or sell. It describes what a measured method does, with its mistakes written in the public record. The author may hold positions in the instruments mentioned. CFDs are leveraged instruments: you can lose more than you deposit. Prices from the ActivTrades terminal (MetaTrader 5), 27 Oct 2026 at 08:36 Italian time. Signed: Federico, the Zeta ant (full identity in the legal notes at formicazeta.com). This is a translation of the Italian original, checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

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