The point: no new order. The short on the CAC 40 of 23 Oct was filled at the open, on the rebound after Moody's: it is the risk the record had written down.
Compared with the lesson of the week. Confirmed what we said on Sunday about Monday: the weekend news all priced in at the open (CAC 40 from 7,780.31 on Friday to 7,829.13 at 08:01 Italian time). The Fed as on Sunday: on hold at 88.5% (Investing, 26 Oct), a December hike at 76-80%. The record closed this morning the daily moves in play on Sunday; the CAC remains. Among the closed ones, the DAX of 21 Oct, PROPOSAL: target 25,180 hit on 23 Oct, +0.75 R net.
The news that matters.
- France. On Friday evening Moody's left the rating untouched: Aa3 with a negative outlook, «periodic review without action» (Euronews 24 Oct, Bloomberg). French ten-year at 5.04% (TE 25 Oct). Paris climbed back up to the CAC limit; the story stays DOWN, the crisis is only postponed.
- Iran and oil. On Sunday Trump: no strike that day, he will soon decide between a deal and military operations. This morning WTI −2.1% at 101.07 (FXStreet), after Brent at 116.72 on Friday, when oil weighed on Wall Street (Dow −1.2%, AP). It affects the CAC filter and the DAX thesis.
- Gold. On Friday below 4,000 (3,995.43 at the broker), this morning 4,004. For ING (23 Oct) expensive oil and rates weigh on it. It affects the weekly long.
- Tokyo and the yen. Tokyo down on fears over AI spending, Sunday's theme (62,280 at the broker); the yen near its five-week high (dollar/yen 157.07). On Friday the BoJ, expected on hold at 1.25%, but with the hawkish tones of Ueda and deputy Himino. It affects the REJECTED one on the Nikkei and the weekly on dollar/yen.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. Today none of the five big US releases; at 10:00 the German Ifo, expected 89.8 (previous 89.9): it affects the DAX. Tomorrow at 13:30 US durable goods (expected +0.6%) and at 15:00 Conference Board confidence (expected 80.5); Lagarde at 18:00 is a dinner with no text, not a speech (ECB calendar). Then, as on Sunday: the Fed on Wednesday at 19:00, the ECB on Thursday at 14:15, the BoJ on Friday around 04:00.
The moves in play.
- CAC 40 · short · PROPOSAL of 23 Oct: limit 7,820 filled: at 08:01 it opened at 7,829.13, the record counts from 7,820; at 08:29 7,820.3. Stop 7,905, target 7,690; exits at the close of 27 Oct, before the Fed.
From the weekly:
- Gold · long · from 4,105: $97 against; exit in the record on 2 Nov.
- Dollar/yen · long · from 157.680: 61 pips against; exit in the record on 18 Nov.
Today's moves.
- Nikkei · short · REJECTED: limit 62,540, below a floor of 3 days broken overnight; thesis, a hawkish BoJ and a strong yen. But on days like today betting on a Nikkei fall has returned worse than usual, betting on a rise better (ratio −2.58): the story says down, the measurement does not.
- DAX · short · WATCHED: limit 25,440, below a ceiling of 6 days; thesis, a tough ECB (64 economists out of 73 see a December hike, Reuters) while the eurozone slows (PMI 51.9 against 52.7). Ratio 1.01 over 14 independent cases, UNSTABLE, almost the same bet as the CAC.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
No PROPOSAL today.
- Nikkei, short: REJECTED, measured thesis, not an order (confidence 0 out of 6).
- DAX, short: WATCHED, measured thesis, not an order (confidence 2 out of 6).