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The diary · Wednesday 21 Oct 2026

7 min read

Translated from the Italian original and checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

The point: expensive oil is reaching German prices. The method proposes a short on the DAX with a limit order and rejects the long on oil: the same fact, measured in two places, gives two answers.

Compared with the week's lesson. The Fed picture holds and gets stronger: a hike in October at 17%, in December between 92 and 94% (Sunday 16% and 88% by 9 Dec). The surprise rule holds: this morning the pound (below). After Sunday's glimmer on Hormuz, on Tuesday a rumour of a US-Iran deal, then denied. The other central banks change: BoE on 5 Nov at about 96% (Sunday 81%); BoJ in October below 5% and in December between 74 and 80%, sources disagree (Sunday 10-12% and 88-90%).

The news that matters.

  • Germany. September producer prices +1.9% in a month against +0.8% expected, +6.7% in a year (Destatis); ZEW sentiment 28.1 from 34.7, expected 32. Expensive oil is reaching factory costs and the ECB, with inflation rising again, cannot help. It is the thesis of today's short on the DAX.
  • Oil. On Tuesday down to 95.25 on a rumour of a US-Iran compromise (investingLive), then denied: on the MetaTrader bars from 95.13 to 101.21. Revolutionary Guards: two tankers hit at Hormuz; API inventories −4.93 million barrels against −1.3 expected. November WTI expired on 20 Oct at 101.79, now the reference is December. It bears on the watched WTI from 19 Oct, today's rejected long and the filter of the shorts on the DAX and gold.
  • Rates and gold. On Tuesday US two-year +2 basis points to 4.79%, ten-year −3 to 5.12%; dollar (DXY) 101.73, −0.25%. Weak US housing: starts 1.221 million against 1.31, pending home sales −7.3% against −0.5%. Weak US data is the written risk for the short on gold; gold, however, fell further, low 4,105.29 today. It bears on the two gold moves and silver.
  • Tech. On Tuesday Nasdaq 100 −0.13%, Dow +1.02% with 3M +5.8%, Russell +1.65%: the money moved to industrials and small companies. After the close Netflix between −3% and −6%, Super Micro between +13% and +15%. Tonight, after 22:00 Italian time, Tesla and Meta: it bears on the weekly's limit on the Nasdaq at 28,800 (scenarios seen on Sunday).
  • Japan. Trade deficit −536.6 billion yen against −250 expected; BoJ deputy governor Himino: "upside risks to prices are high". On yen intervention the last statement found is from 15 Oct. It bears on the limit on dollar/yen at 157.680.
  • London. September inflation 3.5% against 3.4% expected, services 3.7% from 3.4% (ONS). The pound rose to 1.3385 and in ten minutes was back at 1.3366 (MetaTrader): the BoE hike was already priced in. It bears on pound/dollar, with no open moves.
  • France. French ten-year +15 basis points on 19 Oct to 4.94%, the strongest one-day rise since March 2025; budget vote postponed; Moody's on Friday 23 Oct, with markets closed. It weighs on Paris and on the Eurostoxx, no open move.

Today and tomorrow on the calendar. None of the five big US releases.

  • Today: 09:15 Nagel (Bundesbank); 15:00 Bailey (BoE); 16:30 EIA inventories, expected −0.1 million; 18:30 Lagarde (ECB), the written risk for the short on the DAX; 19:00 US 20-year Treasury auction; after 22:00 Tesla and Meta.
  • Tomorrow: 14:30 US jobless claims, expected 200 thousand; 16:00 eurozone consumer confidence, expected −17.
  • Friday 23 Oct at 01:30 Japanese inflation (core expected +2.1%): it bears on the limit on dollar/yen, valid until 23 Oct.

The moves in play.

  • Gold · short · PROPOSAL from 20 Oct: 4,136.20, stop 4,200, target 4,095; now 4,114.17, $22 in favour; exits on 26 Oct.
  • Silver · long · WATCHED from 15 Oct: 56.480, stop 54.300; now 57.187, $0.71 in favour; exits at the close of 27 Oct, before the Fed. Yesterday we wrote 28 Oct: it was wrong, 28 Oct is the day of the Fed.
  • WTI oil · long · WATCHED from 19 Oct: 97.3, stop 92.0; on Tuesday between 95.1 and 101.2, now 99.1, 2 points in favour; exits on 30 Oct.

From the weekly:

  • Gold · long · PROPOSAL from 2 Oct: limit 4,105 filled on 6 Oct, stop 3,940, target 4,375; $9.2 in favour; exits on 2 Nov.
  • Dollar/yen · long · PROPOSAL from 16 Oct: limit 157.680 until 23 Oct, not touched; now 158.169.
  • Nasdaq · long · PROPOSAL from 16 Oct: limit 28,800 until 23 Oct, not touched; now 29,633.4.

Today's moves.

  • DAX · short · PROPOSAL: limit at 25,440, just below a ceiling of 6 distinct days; thesis, expensive oil in German prices weighs on the DAX. Today's high, 25,440.4, came overnight, before the 08:18 recording, and does not count: at 08:29 the price was 25,371.0.
  • WTI oil · long · REJECTED: thesis, tight supply and a return toward 100.60. After rises like these (+4.3% in 5 sessions, +9.2% in 20) holding it for 5 sessions did worse than usual: shift −0.063.

The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.

Order 1 · DAX · short · PROPOSAL 2026-10-21-01

  • Entry: limit at 25,440, recorded at 08:18. Why: just below the ceiling 25,453.07, where the price stopped on 6 distinct days, the last on 6 Oct.
  • Stop: 25,780 (340 points, 1.08 ATR). Why: beyond the high of the 20 sessions, 25,747.53, and beyond 25,761.74 (2 days); above there the market ignores the shock.
  • Target: 25,180 (260 points, 0.83 ATR). Why: just above the floor 25,164.90, 8 distinct days, the last on 24 Sep: the first serious level in favour.
  • Numbers: shift +0.077 R, ratio 1.38, stable over the last 3 years; net R +0.015; confidence MEDIUM, 4 out of 6. In 2026 the 65 similar cases went like any ordinary day.
  • Validity and time exit: limit until 22 Oct 2026; if filled, exit at the close of 27 Oct 2026, before the Fed on 28 Oct.
  • The reason: the oil shock is reaching German prices (producer prices +1.9% in a month, ZEW 28.1) and an ECB with inflation rising again cannot help. Filter declared beforehand: oil up at least 9.2% in 20 sessions.
  • Invalidation: a close above 25,747.53, the high of the last 20 sessions.
  • Risk: a US-Iran deal that brings oil down, or an ECB softer than expected (Lagarde tonight at 18:30).
  • In plain words: the method waits for a DAX rebound below a ceiling that has already pushed the price back six times, to be short for five sessions. The measured edge is small and in 2026 it has not shown up. A close above 25,747.53 invalidates it.

Summary: DAX · short · limit 25,440 · stop 25,780 · target 25,180 · until 22 Oct 2026, time exit on 27 Oct 2026.

  • WTI oil, long: REJECTED, measured thesis, not an order (shift −0.063).

This text is education: it is not financial advice or personalised advice, and it is not an invitation to buy or sell. It describes what a measured method does, with its mistakes written in the public record. The author may hold positions in the instruments mentioned. CFDs are leveraged instruments: you can lose more than you deposit. Prices from the ActivTrades terminal (MetaTrader 5), 21 Oct 2026 at 08:29 Italian time. Signed: Federico, the Zeta ant (full identity in the legal notes at formicazeta.com). This is a translation of the Italian original, checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

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