Skip to content
Formica ZetaTrading
Menu
DiaryNewsSignal roomTest benchSealed envelopesGuidesServicesAboutContact
IT
Diary

The diary · Tuesday 20 Oct 2026

6 min read

Translated from the Italian original and checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

The point: rates are in charge. The method proposes a short on gold and rejects the one on Paris: the French crisis is a strong story, but the measurement does not back it.

Compared with the week's lesson. The Fed picture holds: a hike on 28 Oct between 14 and 16%, by December between 77 and 89% depending on the source (Sunday 16% and 88%). Rates change: US ten-year at 5.15% on Monday, it was 5.09% in Sunday's lesson; BoE hike on 5 Nov at about 95% (investingLive), Sunday 81%. Sunday's glimmer on Hormuz was followed by an escalation that involves Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fear about chips is back. New: the French crisis.

The news that matters.

  • Rates and gold. On Monday evening Iran said the US had struck its Konarak base, yet gold closed at 4,140.67, below the morning's 4,170 (MetaTrader). With the ten-year there, gold, which pays no interest, loses demand. It bears on today's short, the two gold moves in play and silver, which follows it.
  • Oil. On Monday down on Trump's order suspending sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy (investingLive), then up with the war; on the flows through Hormuz the sources contradict each other. High as it is, it keeps inflation alive: it is the filter of the short on gold. It bears on the watched WTI from 19 Oct.
  • France. 2,513 arrests since Saturday (LCP); the 10-year spread with Germany up to 158 basis points, closing at 147, the highest since the sovereign debt crisis (ING); budget vote postponed; Lagarde asks Paris to put its accounts in order (TE, no date); Moody's on Friday. On Monday CAC 40 -1.11%, big European banks beyond -2%. It weighs on Paris and on the Eurostoxx; it bears on the short on Paris, rejected.
  • Chips. On Monday Nasdaq 100 +1.17% on a few stocks; overnight Kospi -4.30% and SK hynix -6% on doubts about AI investment made with debt (TE), Nikkei -1.33%. The fear is back on memory chips. It bears on the Nikkei and on the weekly's limit on the Nasdaq: we looked at the earnings scenarios on Sunday.
  • Japan. Ueda (BoJ) sees underlying inflation "fairly close" to 2%; minister Katayama is ready to intervene on the currency (no date in the source). Both point toward a stronger yen. It bears on the limit on dollar/yen and its written risk, intervention.
  • London. On Monday FTSE -1.08%, with Barclays -3.3%: England's central bank is checking how its operators described some private credit loans. The pound close to a one-month high, 1.3334, before the UK data. No move on these two.

Today and tomorrow on the calendar. None of the five big US releases until the Fed on 28 Oct.

  • Today: 08:00 Italian time UK labour data (unemployment expected 4.9%); 11:00 German ZEW (expected 32, previous 34.7); 14:30 and 19:00 BoE speeches; 22:30 API oil inventories; Netflix after the US close.
  • Tomorrow: 08:00 UK inflation, expected 3.4% from 3.1%; 15:00 Bailey (BoE); 16:30 EIA inventories; 18:30 Lagarde; 19:00 US 20-year Treasury auction, which can move rates; Tesla and IBM after the close.

The moves in play.

  • Gold · short · WATCHED from 14 Oct: 4,149, stop 4,270; now 4,124.84, $24 in favour; time exit tonight.
  • Silver · long · WATCHED from 15 Oct: 56.480, stop 54.300; now 57.194, $0.71 in favour; exits on 28 Oct.
  • WTI oil · long · WATCHED from 19 Oct: 97.3, stop 92.0; now 98.9, 2 points in favour; exits on 30 Oct.
  • Time exit last night, in profit: the PROPOSAL on oil from 13 Oct.

From the weekly:

  • Gold · long · PROPOSAL from 2 Oct: limit 4,105 filled on 6 Oct, stop 3,940, target 4,375; $20 in favour; exits on 2 Nov.
  • Dollar/yen · long · PROPOSAL from 16 Oct: limit 157.680 until 23 Oct, not touched; now 158.144.
  • Nasdaq · long · PROPOSAL from 16 Oct: limit 28,800 until 23 Oct, not touched; now 29,469.0.

Today's moves.

  • Gold · short · PROPOSAL: at market 4,136.20; with oil high, rates weigh on gold. It is on the opposite side of the weekly: there the drift over weeks, with the stop at 3,940 (we saw why on Sunday); here five sessions, stop at 4,200.
  • CAC 40 · short · REJECTED: thesis, Paris down until Moody's; limit 7,825, below a ceiling of 5 distinct days. In cases like today, shorting Paris did worse than on any ordinary day.

The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.

Order 1 · gold · short · PROPOSAL 2026-10-20-02

  • Entry: at market at 4,136.20, recorded at 07:23. Why: near Monday's close, 4,140.67, between a ceiling of 4 distinct days and a floor of 5.
  • Stop: 4,200.00 ($64, 0.81 ATR). Why: above that ceiling and above Monday's high; beyond there it would mean demand has come back.
  • Target: 4,095.00 ($41, 0.52 ATR). Why: just above the floor, where the price stopped on 5 days, the last on 14 Oct.
  • Numbers: shift +0.092 R, ratio 2.66, stable over the last 3 years; gross R +0.003, net R +0.018, partly because of the swap the broker pays on short gold positions; confidence HIGH, 5 out of 6.
  • Validity and time exit: at market; time exit on 26 Oct 2026.
  • The reason: rates are in charge; high oil keeps inflation fears alive and gold, which pays no interest, loses demand. Filter declared beforehand: oil up at least 6.9% in 20 sessions.
  • Invalidation: a close above 4,200, beyond Monday's high.
  • Risk: a real escalation in the Middle East or weak US data, pushing rates down; none of the five big US releases before the exit.
  • In plain words: the method is short gold for five sessions because, with oil high and rates high, that side did better than usual; in absolute terms, though, almost flat, so the edge is small. A close above 4,200 invalidates it.

Summary: gold · short · at market 4,136.20 · stop 4,200 · target 4,095 · time exit on 26 Oct 2026.

  • CAC 40, short: REJECTED, measured thesis, not an order (shift -0.067).

This text is education: it is not financial advice or personalised advice, and it is not an invitation to buy or sell. It describes what a measured method does, with its mistakes written in the public record. The author may hold positions in the instruments mentioned. CFDs are leveraged instruments: you can lose more than you deposit. Prices from the ActivTrades terminal (MetaTrader 5), 20 Oct 2026 at 07:50 Italian time. Signed: Federico, the Zeta ant (full identity in the legal notes at formicazeta.com). This is a translation of the Italian original, checked number by number: if the two differ, the Italian text prevails.

The whole diary