The point: no new order: oil long and gold short watched, Nasdaq short rejected. Oil up after Qeshm, technology still down; today the US vote, tonight AMD.
Against the week's lesson. On Sunday we asked what would move oil: on Monday the talks (−6.70%), overnight a limited US strike (+2.4%). Confirmed: the slide in technology, as far as Asia, and the banks heading toward hikes. The Nikkei falls, but does not touch the limit.
The news that matters.
- Oil. Down on Monday on the Hormuz talks mediated by Qatar; overnight the strike on Qeshm, limited according to the US; Tehran firm on its conditions. This morning 97.65. investingLive (3 Nov, opinion): a recovery if the stalemate continues, a collapse with real progress. It touches today's two watched theses.
- Technology. On Monday Nasdaq 100 −1.39%, chips as low as −18.6% (Lumentum); Palantir and Apple above expectations, yet about −3% after the close; overnight Kospi −3.7%. BlackRock (3 Nov, opinion): proof of the returns is needed. It touches the two Nasdaq theses and the Nikkei.
- Gold and silver. Gold 3,910 (−0.9%) after Monday's +1.92%; silver 49.03 (−3.2%). Commerzbank (2 Nov, opinion): the forced liquidation will end, but pressure while Hormuz stays closed. It touches the watched gold thesis.
- Rates. Australia raised to 4.85%, the highest in 18 years (expected); on Thursday the BoE, a hike priced at 100%. The US ten-year, however, is at 4.89-4.91%, the lowest since mid-September. It touches the gold thesis.
- US elections. Democrats at 66% in the betting markets, in both chambers (Bloomberg). JPMorgan: S&P 500 between −0.25% and +0.5% in that scenario, almost all in the price. It touches US indices, the dollar and oil.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. Today 16:00 Italian time JOLTS (7.13 million); 22:05 AMD; 22:30 API inventories; overnight the vote results, at 01:00 Tokyo reopens. Tomorrow 11:00 eurozone inflation (+3.9% or +4.0% depending on the source), 14:15 ADP, 16:00 ISM services (54.8), 16:30 EIA inventories, 22:05 Qualcomm and Arm.
The moves.
In play: Nasdaq · long · WATCHED of 2 Nov: limit 28,250 filled on Monday evening, now 27,949.5, 301 points against; stop 27,850 not touched; time exit today.
From the weekly: dollar/yen · long · from 157.680, now 157.760, 8 pips in favour, time exit in the record on 18 Nov; Nikkei · long · limit 60,215 not touched, now 62,068.1, valid until 6 Nov.
Today's:
- Oil · long · WATCHED: the risk premium returns. At market at 97.7, because a lower limit would fill if hopes of a deal returned, with the thesis wrong. Ratio 0.99: noise.
- Gold · short · WATCHED: rates and oil up; limit 3,950 below a 4-day ceiling, not touched after the recording. Better than usual (+0.076), but in the same situation the upside bet returns more.
- Nasdaq · short · REJECTED: the fall continues; limit 28,200 below the old floor. After falls like this the downside bet has returned worse than usual (−0.122): yesterday's result is a single case.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
Today no PROPOSAL.
- Oil · long · WATCHED 2026-11-03-01: a measured thesis, not an order. Stop 91.9, target 104.0; confidence 1 out of 6.
- Gold · short · WATCHED 2026-11-03-02: a measured thesis, not an order. Stop 4,020, target 3,890; confidence 4 out of 6.
- Nasdaq · short · REJECTED 2026-11-03-03: a measured thesis, not an order. Stop 28,850, target 27,100; confidence 0 out of 6.