The point: no new order: gold long rejected, Nasdaq long watched. Oil falls on the talks over Hormuz; today the ISM at 16:00 Italian time, tonight Apple, tomorrow the US vote.
Against the week's lesson. On Sunday we asked which news would move oil, the strike or the talks: this morning, the talks. But Washington has not answered, and the «after the vote» risk remains. Confirmed: the Fed heading toward the December hike, priced at around 75%, and the US ten-year still at 4.93%. The Nikkei stays far from the limit: the two scenarios that would bring it closer, Iran and disappointing quarterly results, are still ahead.
The news that matters.
- Oil. −3% this morning, WTI 100.74 and Brent 110.14 (TE). Iran and Qatar are negotiating a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days, if the US accepts Tehran's conditions. Against: at least 10 incidents to ships since 31 Oct, and according to Axios Netanyahu is pushing to strike right after the vote. Goldman Sachs (2 Nov, opinion): Brent at $105 in December. It touches today's theses and the Nikkei's risk.
- Gold. On Friday more than 3% lost, a one-year low at 3,869.97; this morning 3,907 (TE). Commerzbank (opinion): forced liquidation to cover losses on stocks, a recovery expected, but pressure until Hormuz reopens. It is the thesis of the rejected long.
- Technology. On Friday Nasdaq 100 −3.46% (Amazon, Intel), the worst month since March 2025; this morning US futures +0.4%. Morgan Stanley (Wilson, 2 Nov, opinion): S&P 500 as far as about 7,100, then up to 8,000. It touches the watched Nasdaq and the Nikkei.
- Germany. Retail sales −2.0% on the month against +0.4% expected: consumption is slowing. It touches the DAX and the euro, at 1.1190.
- Japan. Katayama: the currency agreement with the US «is alive», ready to act against disorderly moves. In Tokyo Kioxia −14% on weak guidance. It touches dollar/yen and the Nikkei.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. Today 16:00 US ISM manufacturing (expected 54.6, prices paid 77): with the December hike already priced in, it moves only if it strays from expectations. 17:15 Goolsbee (Fed); after 22:00 Apple and Palantir. Tomorrow US midterm elections, Tokyo closed (the CFD is quoted anyway), 16:00 JOLTS (7.13 million), after 22:00 AMD.
The moves.
From the weekly: dollar/yen · long · from 157.680 (filled on 22 Oct), at 08:29 157.756, 8 pips in favour, time exit in the record on 18 Nov; Nikkei · long · limit 60,215 not touched, at 08:29 63,144.9, valid until 6 Nov.
Today's:
- Gold · long · REJECTED: a rebound after the forced liquidation, limit 3,880 just above the one-year low. But with gold this far below the 20-day average the upside bet has returned worse than usual (shift −0.077 R); the downside bet, in the same situation, +0.103 R.
- Nasdaq · long · WATCHED: a rebound up to 28,800, the floor broken on Friday; limit 28,250, above the June and July lows. Better than usual (+0.095 R), but with ratio 0.79: noise.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
Today no PROPOSAL.
- Gold · long · REJECTED 2026-11-02-01: a measured thesis, not an order. Limit 3,880, stop 3,780, target 3,950; ratio −0.76, confidence 0 out of 6.
- Nasdaq · long · WATCHED 2026-11-02-02: a measured thesis, not an order. Limit 28,250, stop 27,850, target 28,780; ratio 0.79, confidence 3 out of 6.