The point: no new order, the dollar/yen short is rejected. The fear about AI is back: tech and rates down, oil up. Yesterday's limit on the S&P, never touched, expires tonight.
Against the week's lesson. Sunday's two themes confirmed: the drop in tech over the costs of AI, and gold falling even with rates falling. The BoJ on hold, as expected.
The news that matters.
- AI. Yesterday Alphabet −12.64%; after the close Amazon −6/−7% and Intel −17/−23%. Nasdaq futures −1.6/−1.8%, Nikkei −2.1% (investingLive, TE). It touches the S&P: a strong Amazon was a written risk, the opposite arrived; PCE, the other one, in line (core +3.1% on the year).
- Rates and dollar. Money from tech into government bonds: US ten-year at 4.90-4.93%, lowest in 7 weeks; dollar index at 101.86, down for three sessions. A strategist quoted by Reuters: this fear lowers rates and the dollar, the oil fear does the opposite. It touches gold and dollar/yen.
- BoJ. On hold at 1.25%, but 8 votes to 1 (Takata for 1.50%); core inflation «in line» with 2%. Dollar/yen as far as 157.108, then 157.486. It is today's rejected short.
- Oil. WTI at 102.57, highest in 6 weeks. According to Axios (28 Oct), without a deal bombings on Iran are likely after 3 Nov; Iran confirms Vance's letter, Qatar is mediating. It is among the filters of the shorts on gold and the S&P.
- Gold. 3,984.54, −4.7% on the month, with rates and the dollar falling and the December Fed hike at 75% (yesterday 82-84%); silver 50.733, lowest since November 2025. The short in play is in favour, but its engine, higher expected rates, has weakened. UBS (28 Oct, opinion): floor around 4,000.
- Europe. Yesterday DAX +1.3% and Paris +1%. ECB on hold, hike discussed; Lagarde will leave on 7 Feb 2027. This morning French GDP −0.1% against +0.1%. They touch DAX, CAC 40 and the euro.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. 10:00 Italian time German GDP (+0.1%); 11:00 eurozone GDP (+0.2%); 13:30 US labour costs (+0.8%); 14:00 German inflation (+3.0%); 17:10 Lane (ECB), 17:30 Musalem (Fed). Saturday 02:30 Chinese PMIs; Sunday OPEC+ and the US on standard time: from Monday US data at 14:30, Wall Street at 15:30.
The moves in play.
- Gold · short · PROPOSAL of 27 Oct, from 4,000 in the record: high 4,082.72 on 28 Oct, stop 4,100 never touched; at 08:32 3,982.72, $17 in favour; time exit on 09 Nov.
- S&P 500 · short · PROPOSAL of 29 Oct, limit 7,765 never touched (high 7,739.4 yesterday). Today low 7,630.5, half a point from the target; at 08:32 7,651.0. Valid until tonight. The limit keeps the stop closer, but one can stay out.
- Closed yesterday: euro/dollar · short · WATCHED of 29 Oct, stop hit during the day: −1.00 R on paper.
From the weekly: gold · long · from 4,105, $122 against, exit in the record on 02 Nov; dollar/yen · long · from 157.680, 19 pips against, exit in the record on 18 Nov.
Today's move. Dollar/yen · short · REJECTED: a hawkish BoJ and falling US rates, the yen pushed up from two sides. Limit at 158.050, below 158.087 (3 distinct days). But the opposite direction returned +0.088 in the same situation, and oil (+12.7% in 20 sessions) on its own favours the dollar.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
Today no PROPOSAL.
- Dollar/yen · short · REJECTED 2026-10-30-01: measured thesis, not an order. Limit 158.050, stop 159.250, target 156.900; ratio −0.43, confidence 0 out of 6.