The point: no new orders. In play, gold from 20 Oct touched its target and the weekly limit on dollar/yen filled.
Compared with the week's lesson. Fed as on Sunday: a hike on 28 Oct at 16%, by December at 90% (Sunday 88%). The limit rule showed: the dollar/yen long filled on a night of bad news; the Nasdaq low is 29,324.0, above the limit at 28,800. Changing: the BoE on 5 Nov (95-96%, Sunday 81%) and the BoJ in December (75-80% or January, sources disagree; Sunday 88-90%).
The news that matters.
- Gold −1.2% (Bloomberg), low 4,066.41 at 07:45 Italian time. Sources cite the December Fed, but the dollar was flat, the ten-year fell and expectations almost as on 20 Oct: incomplete explanation, says the briefing. It bears on the three gold moves.
- Tech. After Wednesday's +1.20%, the earnings: Tesla cuts investment (−3%), Lam Research −7%, Meta +2%. Overnight Nasdaq 100 futures −1.3% (Bloomberg), Nikkei down to −2.2% on chips. It bears on the two Nasdaq moves.
- Oil. Brent between 110.11 and 111, December WTI 98.68: Houthis in Saudi Arabia, US inventories −3.06 million barrels against −0.1 to −0.8 expected. It bears on the watched WTI and the filter of the gold and DAX shorts.
- Yen. Dollar/yen at 157.20, below a floor of 11 days: it bears on the weekly, now filled.
- Rates. US ten-year 5.09% (−3 basis points); weak 20-year auction, foreigners at 58.2% against the 65.2% average (investingLive). It bears on gold and the Nasdaq.
- Europe. Yesterday DAX +1.35%, against the proposed short. French ten-year 152 basis points above the German, the widest since the euro crisis; Moody's tomorrow evening.
- London. Second BoE hike by December at 48% from 58%; the pound at its monthly high, no open move.
Today and tomorrow on the calendar. None of the five big US releases. Today: 12:50 Bailey (BoE); 14:30 US jobless claims, expected 200 thousand; 16:00 eurozone consumer confidence, expected −17. Tomorrow: 01:30 Japanese inflation, core expected +2.1%; 09:15-10:30 European flash PMIs; 15:45 US flash PMIs; in the evening Moody's on France. On Sunday Europe returns to standard time: between 26 and 30 Oct US data come out at 13:30.
The moves in play.
- Gold · short · PROPOSAL from 20 Oct: target 4,095 touched this morning.
- DAX · short · PROPOSAL from 21 Oct: limit 25,440 filled; yesterday up to 25,706.1, 74 points from the stop; now 61 points in favour; exits at the close of 27 Oct.
- Silver · long · WATCHED from 15 Oct: $0.34 against; exits at the close of 27 Oct.
- WTI oil · long · WATCHED from 19 Oct: 2 points in favour; exits on 30 Oct.
From the weekly:
- Gold · long · from 4,105: $13 against; exits on 2 Nov.
- Dollar/yen · long · limit 157.680 filled today: 47 pips against; exits on 18 Nov.
- Nasdaq · long · limit 28,800 not touched, valid until 23 Oct.
Today's moves, both WATCHED:
- Gold · short · limit 4,135, where last night's fall started (now 4,091.81): the Fed and oil weigh on gold. The edge comes only from the oil filter; net R −0.006.
- Nasdaq · short · limit 29,750, below a floor broken last night (now 29,341.7): AI doubts are back. Ratio 0.43, noise; confidence 0 out of 6.
The orders. These are the method's orders, recorded beforehand and judged afterwards in the public record: they are not financial advice.
No PROPOSAL today: gold and Nasdaq short are WATCHED, measured theses, not orders.